The Indian rupee is expected to start the week under pressure, influenced by weakness in Asian currencies. Traders anticipate that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) established support level will help limit potential losses, keeping the rupee within a narrow trading range.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward contracts suggest that the rupee is likely to open flat against the US dollar, having closed at 88.7425 on Friday. Currency traders indicate that the rupee may continue to trade sideways on Monday, constrained by regional market cues and the RBI’s firm defense of the 88.80 threshold. This dynamic is expected to remain unless significant changes occur regarding Federal Reserve rate expectations or definitive news arises concerning a US-India trade agreement.
“There is a distinct lack of energy on either side,” noted an FX spot trader at a private sector bank. Another trader emphasized, “Until we have fresh impulse, we’re essentially trading the same ranges.” Last week, the rupee fluctuated within a band of slightly over 20 paise, reflecting tight control amid consistent RBI intervention.
Bankers believe that the outlook will remain stable unless the USD/INR rate breaches the 88.80 level, which could trigger new record lows.
ASIA STRUGGLES
On Monday, Asian currencies generally declined, with the Taiwanese dollar and South Korean won leading the drops, while the dollar index saw a slight uptick. Investors are focusing on upcoming US economic data now that the federal shutdown is over, seeking insights into the Federal Reserve’s decisions regarding interest rates for December. The highly anticipated September non-farm payrolls report is scheduled for release on Thursday.
The market’s response to US President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariff reductions on over 200 food items was muted, as analysts pointed out that such a shift had been largely anticipated in the context of rising cost-of-living pressures.
Published on November 17, 2025.
