The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly higher on Thursday, buoyed by the central bank’s commitment to defend a critical level and a modest uptick among Asian currencies.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward (NDF) suggests the rupee will start in the range of 88.60 to 88.62 against the US dollar, having closed at 88.6550 on Tuesday. Indian financial markets were closed on Wednesday due to a local holiday.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened on Tuesday, taking action in both the NDF market before the local market opened and in the onshore spot market, to reinforce its determination to keep the rupee from weakening beyond 88.80.
Throughout the session, the central bank’s dollar sales were noted, with bankers observing persistent offers in the 88.64 to 88.66 range. This intervention mirrors the RBI’s strategy from mid-October when similar actions led to a recovery of the rupee from close to 88.80 to above 88.
“It’s obvious the RBI doesn’t want a print beyond 88.80, at least for now,” remarked a currency trader at a private sector bank. However, he added, “There’s still a ton of natural (dollar) demand out there—oil, hedging, gold—so I don’t see a drop in dollar/rupee despite all this intervention.”
Asia Offers Slight Boost
On Thursday, most Asian currencies appreciated against the US dollar, supported by improved risk sentiment following a recovery on Wall Street. Positive US economic data encouraged investors to return to risk assets, lifting regional foreign exchange markets.
Data released on Wednesday indicated that activity in the US services sector reached an eight-month high in October, while private payrolls rose by 42,000, surpassing forecasts. In response to this data, US Treasury yields strengthened, reflecting the economy’s resilience and prompting a slight reduction in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
Published on November 6, 2025.
