OPEC+ is expected to reach an agreement on Sunday regarding a modest increase in oil output targets, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. This decision reflects a cautious approach as the producers’ group seeks to regain market share amid concerns about a potential oversupply.
Since April, OPEC+ has raised output targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd), which accounts for approximately 2.5 percent of global supply. However, the pace of increases has slowed in October and November due to fears of a looming surplus.
Recent Western sanctions imposed on OPEC+ member Russia have further complicated negotiations, as it faces difficulties in enhancing its output following new measures affecting key producers Rosneft and Lukoil from the United States and Great Britain.
The meeting will likely see eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria—agree to boost December output targets by 137,000 bpd, per the sources, who requested anonymity due to media engagement restrictions. A fourth source noted that a pause in output increases could also be on the table.
On October 20, oil prices fell to a five-month low of approximately $60 per barrel amid concerns over an increasing glut. However, prices have rebounded to around $65 per barrel due to Russian sanctions and positive developments in U.S. trade talks with other countries.
Analysts from firms such as RBC, Rystad, Commerzbank, and SEB have indicated their expectation for OPEC+ to implement an increase of 137,000 bpd for December.
The meeting is scheduled for 1600 GMT on Sunday. For several years leading up to April, OPEC+ had been reducing output, with cuts peaking in March at 5.85 million bpd. These reductions consisted of voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd from eight members, and an additional 2 million bpd from the entirety of the group.
The coalition has actively reversed voluntary cuts, while the reduction applicable to the entire group is intended to remain in effect until the end of 2026.
Published on November 2, 2025.
