Oil prices stabilized at the end of the week, with OPEC+ planning a modest increase in output during their upcoming meeting, as U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed rumors of a military strike on Venezuela.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose approximately 0.7% to close at $60.98, remaining largely unchanged from the previous week. Delegates reported that a third consecutive monthly increase of 137,000 barrels per day is anticipated for discussions on Sunday among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, aligning with market expectations.
Earlier in the session, oil prices surged following reports from the Wall Street Journal and the Miami Herald that the U.S. was considering military strikes on Venezuelan military facilities involved in drug trafficking. However, Trump later refuted these claims, contradicting earlier statements about potential land attacks following several maritime operations, which led to a decline in futures.
Traders had largely anticipated curtailed oil flows from Venezuela, following the deployment of U.S. naval assets to the Caribbean this year, coupled with Trump’s designation of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as an illegitimate leader involved in trafficking. Market participants believe that a military campaign would likely avoid targeting energy infrastructure.
This tension unfolds amid concerns of a global crude surplus. Gregory Brew, a geopolitical analyst at the Eurasia Group, stated, “If the U.S. intention is regime change, there is a vested interest in keeping energy infrastructure more or less intact, as that would provide financial support for whatever government succeeds Maduro.”
Additionally, traders are considering the implications of U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two leading oil producers, a factor that the CEO of Europe’s largest oil refinery mentioned is undervalued by the market. Importers accounting for more than half of India’s Russian crude purchases have paused acquisitions for the upcoming months.
WTI crude has dropped over 10% this year, as rising production from both OPEC+ and non-OECD countries surpasses demand growth. The forthcoming OPEC+ meeting is critical; the group has already reinstated 2.2 million barrels per day of previously curtailed supplies ahead of schedule and is proceeding cautiously with further increases to monitor market conditions.
While crude markets grapple with oversupply, there is notable strength in refined fuel markets, particularly due to U.S. sanctions affecting Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil. Diesel prices are at their highest premiums to crude since early 2024, enhancing refining margins and potentially increasing crude demand.
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Published on November 1, 2025.
