India’s import of thermal coal, which is largely consumed by the Power sector, rose by almost 3 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) to 12.95 million tonnes (mt) in October this year due to lower production last month.
Global real time data and analytics provider Kpler said “The decline in domestic production pushed Indian seaborne thermal coal imports to rose by 2.90 per cent y-o-y to a four-month high of 12.95 mt in October, particularly as industrial demand increased after the monsoon season.”
On a monthly basis, thermal coal imports rose by 3.6 per cent, Kpler data shows.
The Coal Ministry is yet to publish the monthly production and despatch numbers for October 2025.
Low volume
However, a combination of high stockpiles, above-average rainfall, and the new GST framework (rate rationalisation) that brought down the cost competitiveness of imported thermal coal limited a more pronounced upside. As a result, October volumes remained below the previous five-year average of 14 mt, said Zhiyuan Li, Kpler’s Dry Bulk Commodity Analyst.
“Looking ahead, we are projecting monthly seaborne thermal to stabilise around 12 mt through year-end. The improvement in domestic supply and high inventory levels are likely to cap the need for imports,” he told businessline.
The demand for imported volumes in the cement sector will remain resilient as cement plants increase the share of coal in their fuel mix, as it is possible to source it at a lower cost than petcoke, he added.
Thermal coal imports inched up consecutively every month March to May 2025 as India stocked up the critical resource in anticipation of the peak summer demand period (April-June 2025).
However, early rains led to a dip in mercury from May 2025 onwards which reflected in lower power consumption thereby leading to lower coal burn. Consequently, imports fell consecutively every month from June to August this calendar year.
India’s energy consumption hit 132 billion units (Bus) in October 2025 declining by 6 per cent y-o-y . The coal power generation stood at 93.61 BU and 718.02 BU in October 2025 and April-October 2025, respectively, compared to 108.76 BU and 760.50 BU in October 2024 and April-October 2024, respectively.
Metallurgical coal imports
The seaborne metallurgical coal imports into India totalled 6 mt in October 2025, up 11 per cent y-o-y as the country’s steel sector remains on a structural growth path.
Nevertheless, volumes declined 7.70 per cent compared to the average imports of the first half of FY26 (April to September), as high steel inventories and ongoing price softness dragged the growth of steel production, Li explained.
“For the remainder of 2025, metallurgical coal imports are expected to be slightly below 6 mt as the growth of domestic steel output continues to slow. Kpler Insight forecasts Indian crude steel production growth to decrease to around 10 per cent in Q4, down from a near two-year high of 13.20 per cent in Q3,” he added.
Published on November 9, 2025
