Equity markets started the day cautiously today, with the key indices showing slight gains amidst a mix of global and domestic signals. At 9.58 AM, the Sensex was up by 251.85 points or 0.34 per cent at 74,281.61, while the Nifty50 rose by 62.60 points or 0.28 per cent to 22,533.10.
The market sentiment is divided between positive domestic economic data and escalating global trade tensions due to recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration. Retail inflation in India eased to 3.61 per cent, while industrial production reached an eight-month high of 5 per cent, creating a desirable growth-inflation balance.
Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, stated, “The better-than-expected decline in CPI inflation to 3.75 per cent in February has brought down inflation below the RBI’s inflation target of 4 per cent. Along with this, the surge in the IIP in January to an 8-month high of 5.01 per cent provides the perfect macro backdrop for a rate cut by the MPC in April.”
However, global developments are dampening market performance. “Unfortunately, the global scenario is highly unfavorable with the trade war triggered by Trump getting worse,” Vijayakumar added. The European Union has retaliated against Trump’s 25 per cent steel tariff with tariffs on $28 billion of US imports, while Canada has imposed tariffs on $20 billion of US exports.
Among sectoral performers, defense and energy stocks led the gains in early trade. BEL emerged as the top gainer on NSE, rising 2.53 per cent with substantial trading volume of over 1.27 crore shares. ONGC followed with a 2.13 per cent increase amid stable global oil prices. Other notable gainers included Tata Steel (1.19 per cent), SBI (0.95 per cent), and Trent (0.89 per cent).
On the other hand, IndusInd Bank slipped 1.29 per cent, emerging as the top loser despite being among yesterday’s top Nifty gainers. Shriram Finance dropped 1.05 per cent, while Apollo Hospitals, Bajaj Auto, and Hero MotoCorp fell by 0.74 per cent, 0.50 per cent, and 0.46 per cent, respectively.
Technical indicators suggest a period of consolidation in the market. Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research at Axis Securities, noted, “The nifty recovered from its intraday drop but could not finish the day in the green yesterday — it still generated a daily candle with a long lower shadow. This means that downside demand is potent, and the support area between 22245 – 22330 is pivotal.”
In the currency markets, the Indian Rupee is trading at 87.149 against the US Dollar. VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, warned, “This situation could worsen amid growing concerns such as continued market sell-offs, increased interest in gold ETFs, and a declining trend in SIPs.”
Changes in investor behavior are noteworthy, with SIP inflows declining to a three-month low of ₹25,999 crore in February. Approximately 44.56 lakh SIP accounts were opened during this period, while 54.70 lakh accounts were discontinued. DIIs have bought assets worth ₹23,216.19 crore in March 2025, while FIIs sold ₹18,810.74 crore during the same period.
In the commodities market, gold and silver prices reached two- and three-week highs, respectively following a cooler-than-expected US inflation report. “Safe-haven demand for the two precious metals remains in place amid global trade friction that could produce slowing world economic growth,” stated Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd.
Oil prices displayed volatility but extended gains amidst cooling US inflation and rebounding US equity markets. WTI crude oil found support at $66.80-66.00 and faces resistance at $67.90-68.60 in today’s session.
Market analysts advise caution in the current environment. Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking, advised, “Traders are advised to exercise caution and wait for confirmation of price action at critical levels before initiating fresh positions.”
For long-term investors, the current correction may present opportunities. “I recommend investors who previously missed the market rally consider accumulating value. As for those who have already invested, they should focus on hedging their portfolio and remain invested as the market will rebound,” suggested VLA Ambala.
With the Holi festival approaching on March 14, traders are preparing for a challenging environment as they navigate between domestic tailwinds and global headwinds.
