Indian equity markets are expected to open with a modest decline on Monday, with the Nifty futures closing at 25,589 and the GIFT Nifty indicating a slight weakness at 25,580. Analysts forecast that market volatility is likely to persist as global cues develop. Reports indicate that a deal has been reached in the US Senate to fund the government through January 30, which could ease concerns about a government shutdown. The direction of the market will largely depend on global trends and foreign fund flows.
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, emphasized that the upcoming week is pivotal, with several significant macroeconomic data releases on the horizon. The spotlight will be on India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation data, which are crucial for assessing the inflation trajectory and monetary policy outlook. On the global front, traders are likely to monitor AI-related stock performance and developments in global trade negotiations, both of which could affect market sentiment.
In November, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have reversed their trend from October when they recorded net purchases of ₹3,902 crore. As of November 8, FIIs have sold ₹13,367 crore, bringing the total FII sell figure for 2025 to ₹2,07,568 crore. This substantial outflow has contributed to India’s underperformance compared to other major markets throughout the year.
Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Ltd, pointed out a key trend in FII activity, highlighting that hedge funds are transitioning from selling in India to investing in markets that are benefitting from AI advancements. Countries such as the US, China, South Korea, and Taiwan are viewed as winners in the AI space, while India is often labeled as a loser.
Concerns regarding valuations are significantly affecting FPI actions amid the current global rally driven by AI. Dr. Vijayakumar remarked that AI valuations have reached elevated levels, raising the risk of a potential bubble burst. As this awareness spreads among investors, it could potentially change the trend of FII selling in India. Should India’s earnings growth continue to improve, FIIs may start to return as buyers, although such a turnaround may take time.
On the earnings front, quarterly results from major firms including Bajaj Finance, ONGC, Bajaj Finserv, Biocon, Ashok Leyland, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, BPCL, Marico, and Oil India will be closely monitored for sectoral insights. However, derivative indicators show a positive bias.
Dhupesh Dhameja, a Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, observed that the derivatives data indicates a defensive approach, with call writers increasing positions at higher strike levels while put writers build positions at lower levels. This activity suggests a phase of consolidation. There is considerable open interest buildup of 1.52 crore contracts at the 26,000 call strike, indicating strong resistance, while significant put open interest of 1.25 crore contracts at the 25,300 strike suggests limited downside support.
The rise in both call and put writing hints at growing neutrality among traders. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has also risen to 0.88 from 0.63, reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment, as both buyers and sellers are maintaining firm positions.
Published on November 10, 2025.
