Is India Losing Its Vibrancy and Momentum in the Global Landscape?

DEHRADUN: As January transitioned into February, India entered a phase that meteorologists are labeling as “early spring-like,” resulting from extended dry conditions and unusually high temperatures.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), January 2024 ranked as the third-warmest on record, with an average mean temperature of 18.9°C, and was the fourth-driest since 1901, marking it as one of the most extreme winter months in recent memory.
Normally, March and April are classified as part of the spring season; however, as February progresses with temperatures resembling those of April, data gathered by international weather monitoring agencies indicates that the once-reliable shift from winter to summer is increasingly being altered by the forces of climate change. Experts claim that this trend signifies more than just an anomaly – it reflects a gradual yet fundamental transformation in India’s climate, potentially rendering the country’s traditional spring season obsolete.
Professor Anjal Prakash, research director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy at the Indian School of Business (Hyderabad) and a contributor to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN organization), cautioned about the broader implications of a vanishing spring. “With shifting climate patterns, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the beloved spring season, once a symbol of renewal and agricultural abundance, is under significant threat,” he stated.

Prakash continued by highlighting that these changes are disrupting traditional weather cycles, shortening the length of spring, and altering its usual temperate conditions. “The consequences extend beyond climate and agriculture; biodiversity and cultural practices intricately linked to seasonal transitions are at risk. Tackling this issue demands immediate and coordinated efforts to mitigate its effects and uphold the rhythm of our seasons,” he warned.
The IMD’s forecast for the current month anticipates below-normal rainfall across the nation, especially in northern India, while both maximum and minimum temperatures are predicted to remain above average. “We may experience an early or perhaps even a nonexistent spring season,” remarked Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet. “Weak Western Disturbances during December and January resulted in reduced snowfall and fewer winter rains. Moreover, warm and humid winds from the southwest and southeast obstructed cold northern winds, causing minimum temperatures to rise unusually high.”
The Himalayan region is particularly affected, suffering from historically low levels of snowfall. Mukhtar Ahmed, director of the regional meteorological center in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, reported that winters are rapidly shrinking. “There is no snowfall here, and maximum temperatures have remained 6-8°C above normal for the past three weeks. Winters, which used to extend from October to March, are now limited to just December and January,” he noted.
European think tank Climate Central has also pointed out a long-term trend – February warming rates have surged significantly in recent decades, leading to a rapid transition from winter to summer. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed 2024 as the hottest year on record, with temperatures approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. In northern India, winter is abruptly yielding to summer, erasing the gradual transition of spring.
This winter has been marked by severe precipitation deficits across the Himalayas. Since January 1, Uttarakhand recorded an 86% shortfall, followed by Jammu and Kashmir (80%), Himachal Pradesh (73%), and Sikkim (82%). IMD data reveals that northwest and eastern India – with the exception of eastern Rajasthan – experienced deficient to significantly deficient rainfall, while central India faced a 96% rainfall deficit in January.