India’s imports of crude oil from Russia rebounded in early October, halting a decline observed over the previous three months, according to ship tracking data. This increase coincided with Indian refineries ramping up output to meet festive demand.
In June, imports from Russia exceeded 2 million barrels per day (bpd) but fell to 1.6 million bpd by September. Early October data indicate an uptick, with shipments of Urals and other Russian grades to India rising, primarily due to renewed discounts driven by reduced demand in Western markets and increased shipping flexibility.
Preliminary figures from global trade analytics firm Kpler suggest that October imports are on track for approximately 1.8 million bpd, marking an increase of around 250,000 bpd from September. However, this data may be subject to revision.
The uptick in imports occurred before U.S. President Donald Trump’s October 15 statement, in which he claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to cease Russian crude imports. Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal indicated that he was unaware of any such phone conversation.
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modeling) at Kpler, posited that Trump’s statement may be more about leveraging pressure in trade negotiations rather than indicating an imminent policy shift. “Russian barrels remain deeply embedded in India’s energy system for economic, contractual, and strategic reasons,” Ritolia explained.
Indian refiners have also reported no governmental directive to halt imports from Russia. After Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia and boycotted its oil amid the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, India began purchasing Russian crude sold at discounted rates. Russia’s share of India’s total oil imports surged from 1.7% in fiscal year 2019-20 to 40% in fiscal year 2023-24, making Russia the largest oil supplier to India.
In the first half of October, Russia maintained this dominant position, with Iraq being a distant second at around 1.01 million bpd and Saudi Arabia supplying approximately 830,000 bpd. The U.S. surpassed the UAE to become India’s fourth-largest supplier, sending around 647,000 bpd, while the UAE contributed 394,000 bpd, according to Kpler.
Ritolia noted that Russian crude is structurally crucial for India, making up about 34% of its total imports due to attractive pricing that refineries cannot overlook. “The decrease in imports during July-September was less about tariff issues and more influenced by seasonal factors, particularly maintenance at public sector refineries,” he added.
Most contracts for deliveries up to early September had been concluded 6–10 weeks in advance, indicating that the reduction in crude import volumes during that period was largely due to maintenance schedules at refineries.
Despite a tightening of discounts compared to 2023, Russian crude remains one of the most economical feedstock options for Indian refiners, offering discounts of $3.5-5 per barrel, up from $1.5-2 in July and August.
While alternatives from the Middle East, Latin America, and the U.S. could replace Russian supplies, the transition poses challenges. The complexity of sourcing oil from different regions may lead to increased costs and potential impacts on retail prices, which in turn could generate inflation and political repercussions. Retooling supply contracts takes time, and Indian refiners have indicated a gradual expansion of their supplier base primarily to enhance energy security and flexibility, rather than to eliminate Russian crude in the short term.
India has consistently pursued an independent foreign and energy policy that balances economic and diplomatic interests. A rapid shift away from Russian crude would jeopardize its energy strategy and is unlikely unless formal sanctions are enacted, akin to those imposed on Iran or Venezuela.
At present, significant cuts to Russian imports appear improbable unless compelled by the U.S. or EU pressure. Should Washington intensify its demands, Indian refiners might implement minor reductions of 100,000-200,000 bpd to show a commitment to diversification and appease Western partners. However, these reductions would likely be nominal rather than transformative.
Increasing imports from the U.S. to satisfy Trump could be an option, yet the potential volume increase is limited to about 400,000-500,000 bpd due to logistical, financial, and compatibility challenges with Indian refineries. Kpler data indicates that U.S. crude imports have averaged 310,000 bpd in 2025, a rise from 199,000 bpd in 2024, with October projections suggesting a peak of around 500,000 bpd.
