A reduction in planting area, paired with excessive rainfall and pest issues, is anticipated to diminish India’s red chilli crop for the 2025-26 season, as farmers are increasingly opting for alternative crops like maize, cotton, and pulses. However, the augmented carry-forward stocks are expected to stabilize supplies and keep prices in check, despite weakened export demand.
“The crop has been sown on approximately 70 percent of the cultivated area this year. It is premature to assess the crop size since sowing has been staggered across all three prominent producing states in the South. A clearer understanding of the crop’s size will materialize only in the first week of January,” stated Velagapudi Sambasiva Rao, President of the Chilli Exporters Association in Guntur.
Rao further noted that substantial carry-forward stocks will sustain price stability. Current estimates suggest carry-forward stocks of around 5.5 million bags in Andhra Pradesh, 3.6 million bags in Telangana, and 4.5 million bags in Karnataka. He highlighted that export demand from China, the leading importer, remains subdued due to a robust local harvest.
Arrivals Begin in Karnataka
Sandeep Voddepalli, General Manager at BigHaat Agro Pvt Ltd, indicated that the overall planting area has decreased by 25-30 percent compared to the previous year, with a projected crop reduction of around 20 percent. The chilli crop is expected to reach approximately 1.14 million tonnes in 2025-26, a decline from 1.41 million tonnes last year.
The crop is primarily in the flowering and fruit-setting stages in various regions of Andhra and Telangana, while arrivals of chillies have begun gradually in Karnataka. Although there have been some minor pest issues in different areas, Voddepalli believes that these will not severely affect the crop. He estimates chilly stocks at 1.57 million bags, about 14 percent higher than last year’s 1.38 million bags as of November, with farmers and stockists retaining their stocks in anticipation of improved prices in the coming months.
Byadgi Variety
Basavaraj Hampali of Hampali Traders in Hubbali reported that the cultivated area in Karnataka has decreased by 25-30 percent. He noted that heavy rains during the monsoon period, particularly in August, negatively impacted the crop, potentially leading to losses of about 10-15 percent.
Arrivals of the Byadgi variety are beginning to increase slowly and are expected to continue rising in the approaching months. Prices for Byadgi chillies are currently hovering between ₹40,000 and ₹45,000 per quintal, a significant increase from ₹30,000 to ₹35,000 a year earlier. Hampali estimated the stocks of Byadgi chillies in Karnataka at approximately 3-3.5 million bags, a decrease from 4.5 to 5 million bags a year prior. However, he noted that the carry-forward stocks remain above the typical range of 1.5 to 2.5 million bags.
Published on December 12, 2025.
