At the upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP) in Belém, a principal focus will be on the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, all countries are required to submit updated NDCs by 2025, which should reflect their ambitions for the period beyond 2030. India now faces a critical decision: should it disclose its revised NDC immediately or wait for a more opportune moment?
India submitted its updated NDC on August 26, 2022, committing to a 45% reduction in emissions intensity of its GDP from 2005 levels and ensuring that 50% of its installed power capacity comes from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. Additionally, the country aims to establish a carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through increased forest and tree cover, with a long-term goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070.
On these fronts, India has made significant progress. By 2020, it had already reached 50% non-fossil power capacity and reduced emissions intensity by approximately 36% compared to 2005. While fossil fuels remain dominant in electricity generation, there are positive developments: Indian electricity distribution companies (discoms) are increasingly requiring stable renewable energy, which is becoming more cost-effective than coal.
The energy sector is experiencing rapid changes, especially in energy storage. Several national initiatives related to electric mobility—evidenced by the proliferation of electric buses in urban areas—hydrogen fuel development, a domestic carbon trading scheme, and discussions aimed at power sector reform have been launched.
Arguments for Immediate Revision
India holds a favorable position in the international climate change arena, supporting four key arguments for publishing its updated NDC at COP30 in Belém:
- It would showcase India’s commitment and leadership among both developing and developed nations.
- A revised NDC that emphasizes renewable energy, storage ambitions, hydrogen initiatives, electric mobility, and the carbon credit scheme would signal coherence in India’s energy transition strategy.
- By explicitly outlining its adaptation and resilience requirements, India could position itself as a vulnerable nation deserving of increased international financial assistance.
- Clean energy and manufacturing investors generally prioritize stable policy environments.
Reasons to Wait
Conversely, four arguments suggest delaying the publication of the revised NDC:
- Political Timing: Given current geopolitical circumstances, India may benefit from issuing a more ambitious NDC after COP30, as this would press other (developed) countries to ramp up their commitments first.
- Shifting Focus: An early revision risks redirecting attention from India’s current achievements to future compliance, potentially detracting from the global discourse on the accountability of other nations.
- Negotiating Leverage: Keeping the revised NDC under wraps could enhance India’s negotiating power in climate discussions, particularly regarding finance, adaptation, and loss and damage. This approach communicates a firm stance: “We will act when you act.”
- Uncertain Global Context: If leading emitters fail to escalate their ambitions or continue exhibiting double standards on climate financing, a premature revision could compromise India’s bargaining position.
Global climate negotiations revolve not only around performance but also involve strategic positioning. By aligning its NDC update with the outcomes of COP30 and the global stocktake, India can ensure that its ambitions reflect fairness, thereby transforming leadership into influence. Therefore, the strategic timing of the NDC revision appears to favor a delay over an immediate release.
(The writer is Founder-CEO of the INTENT Platform and former Managing Director of CESL.)
Published on November 10, 2025.
