India’s crude imports from Russia are projected to remain robust, ranging between 1.8 and 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) as of November 18, as refiners continue to focus on the most economical options available. This surge in imports comes ahead of the sanctions deadline set by Washington on November 21, prompting a five-month high in Indian shipments of Russian crude. However, it is anticipated that these flows will decline noticeably in the near term following the sanctions.
As Indian refiners take advantage of Russian oil, they are also diversifying their sources, re-engaging traditional suppliers from the Middle East, and incorporating crude from the US and West Africa. According to data from Kpler, imports from Russia are anticipated to remain notably high prior to the sanctions, but are expected to fluctuate post-November 21.
The US sanctions are aimed primarily at specific companies, including Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. Currently, it appears that no Indian refiner, aside from Nayara’s Vadinar refinery, is expected to conduct business with these sanctioned entities. Nonetheless, analysts suggest that a complete cessation of oil imports from Russia is unlikely, given that crude itself is not subject to sanctions. Russia constitutes roughly 35-38% of India’s cumulative oil imports, a significant figure that may reduce by more than half, with tangible effects expected from December 2025 onward.
An official from a domestic refinery highlighted the need to assess compliance mechanisms concerning EU and US sanctions, indicating that while Russian oil deliveries are likely to decrease next month, an alternative supply from Russia may emerge around March or April 2026.
In its November 2025 short-term energy outlook, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated a possible reduction in Russian crude output by approximately 0.1 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026. Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst, noted that India continues to receive Russian crude from non-sanctioned suppliers, which remains permissible under current regulations.
The sanctions imposed by the US specifically target certain corporations and their major subsidiaries, allowing crude sourced from non-designated Russian firms—such as Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft—to be legally procured by Indian refiners, as long as no sanctioned entities or associated vessels are involved.
The sanctions have already compelled Indian refiners to explore alternative sourcing options, leading them to seek additional barrels from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait to offset losses from the medium sour grade oil previously imported from Russia. Additionally, there has been a notable increase in crude oil importations from the US, which is becoming one of India’s leading suppliers for lighter grades. Data from Kpler indicates that imports from the US reached a record 594,000 b/d as of November 18, an increase from 568,000 b/d in October and significantly higher than the year-to-date average of 300,000 b/d.
Furthermore, Indian refiners are progressively sourcing crude oil from South American nations such as Brazil and Colombia, as well as from West African countries, particularly Nigeria and Ghana.
Published on November 20, 2025.
