In the wake of a lawsuit that did not yield immediate results, Elon Musk adopted a nationalist approach. This shift followed Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, which resulted in the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and drew widespread international condemnation. Musk capitalized on this sentiment to persuade Congress and the Obama administration to reduce reliance on the United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) primary rocket, the Atlas V, which utilized Russian RD-180 engines. The lawsuit was eventually resolved out of court, and this maneuvering contributed to diminishing ULA’s dominance in government space launches.
A significant advancement came in 2017 when SpaceX began reusing its rocket cores, leading to a dramatic decrease in the cost of launching payloads into orbit. As of eight years later, the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy are still the only rockets in their weight classes with reusable cores. Moreover, the ongoing development of SpaceX’s Merlin engine, spearheaded by engineer Tom Mueller, has proven crucial. Despite an employee’s remark that the engine’s performance is subpar, extensive testing has resulted in one of the most reliable engines in aerospace history. A rigorous testing regimen led to the creation of an engine that is exceptionally robust.
Today, a Falcon 9 rocket, equipped with nine reusable Merlin engines, can transport one kilogram to low Earth orbit at a cost one-third of previous figures, while the Falcon Heavy, which utilizes 27 Merlins, reduces costs by nearly half again. Approximately 85% of Falcon 9 missions are executed using previously flown first stages. In 2022, SpaceX increased its launch frequency from around 30 to over 60 missions annually, and in the following year, it achieved 138 launches. NASA’s efforts in space launches and human exploration are now nearly entirely in Musk’s hands, leading to the emergence of a new space economy contingent on affordable access to low Earth orbit. Companies like Planet Labs, which specializes in satellite imaging, have utilized Falcon 9 for deploying hundreds of its spacecraft.
Currently, competitors seem to be attempting to carve out niches within Musk’s expansive ecosystem rather than directly competing. ULA is focusing on rockets designed for geostationary orbits, yet many of its clients are opting to align with Musk’s model of satellite constellations closer to Earth. Newer entrants like Rocket Lab and Firefly Aerospace are recognized for their innovation, though their rockets are comparatively small, with capacities reaching only a couple of thousand pounds versus the Falcon Heavy’s 140,000 pounds.
“SpaceX is a cornerstone in the space industry. Then there are other cornerstones, like Firefly. We’re very complementary to SpaceX,” noted Jason Kim, CEO of Firefly Aerospace. Firefly’s recent public valuation reached $8.5 billion, while Rocket Lab stands at approximately $21 billion.
Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, possesses the financial backing to contend against SpaceX and has been engaged in the space sector for over 25 years with his company Blue Origin. However, the company has encountered challenges due to competing priorities. Though Blue Origin’s BE-4 engine is powering the first stage of ULA’s new rocket, its own significant rocket, intended to rival SpaceX, has only flown once. When queried about the unique advantages of their rockets compared to Musk’s, a Blue Origin representative admitted there was no solid answer.
China, once viewed as a potential leader in global rocket launches, has struggled to keep pace with Musk’s frequency of launches, averaging between 64 and 68 annually over the past three years. Not only is SpaceX launching twice as often, but it is also delivering over ten times the mass to orbit. While Stoke Space, founded by former Blue Origin engineers, is generating excitement within the aerospace community, it has yet to launch a rocket. ULA has developed a powerful new rocket, but Musk remains ahead with his ongoing work on a massive launcher that aims to be fully reusable, promising substantial cost savings. In contrast, ULA’s Vulcan will not have fully reusable stages, which may lead to a diminished role for ULA in government and regional contracts, according to a recent report by SpaceNews Intelligence.
At a factory in Starbase, Texas, Musk recently articulated his vision for space exploration, claiming, “This is where we’re going to develop the technology necessary to take humanity to another planet for the first time in the four-and-a-half-billion-year history of Earth.” However, he also reiterated a pragmatic point: “Starlink internet is what’s being used to pay for humanity getting to Mars.”
