Cashew prices have been dropping in recent months due to various factors affecting the market. According to experts in the industry, a combination of a good crop in East African countries, weaker demand from major importers such as the US and Europe, and a post-Diwali dip in sales in India are contributing to the current slump in prices.
The global cashew market is currently experiencing a holiday slump, with prices dropping by nearly 8 percent compared to the upward trend seen a couple of months ago. Vietnam WW320 kernels (AFI quality) are trading around $1,600-$1,620 per tonne free-on-board (f.o.b), while export kernel prices in India have also seen a significant drop.
Despite the current sluggish market, industry experts are hopeful for a rebound in the New Year and during South Indian festivals in January, which could bring renewed demand and help stabilize prices. The commencement of the wedding season in January is also expected to perk up demand, along with the arrival of the next crop by March, which could offer more supply in the market.
Looking ahead to 2025, experts anticipate a subdued demand for kernels in the first four months of the year, as most buyers will be drawing down on inventories in anticipation of new crops. However, they expect the market to remain steady with no significant upside.
On the new crop scenario for India, experts predict a better crop due to climate changes and unusual rains leading to good moisture in the soil. This could result in better prices for Indian farmers, with a potential increase of 15-20 percent over the average of the last three years.
Overall, the global cashew market is expected to be influenced by the crop scenarios in West Africa, Cambodia, and Vietnam, with prices returning to normalcy in 2024. The steady trend in prices is expected to benefit the farming community in India and provide stability in the market.
In conclusion, while the cashew market is currently facing challenges, experts believe that upcoming events and crop scenarios could lead to a more positive outlook for the industry in the coming year.
