Target Price: ₹1,289
Current Market Price: ₹1,077.35
Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) stands as India’s largest renewable energy company and a prominent player globally in the sector. As of September 2025, AGEL’s installed capacity was 16.7 GW, with ambitions to escalate that figure to 50 GW by 2030, which includes plans for the world’s largest 30 GW renewable energy park located in Khavda, Gujarat.
The company’s strong track record in project execution, synergies with other businesses in the Adani group—such as transmission, distribution, and infrastructure—an extensive inventory of 250,000 acres earmarked for renewable energy development, and the deployment of advanced technologies (such as 5.2 MW wind turbines) underpin its capability to meet this ambitious target. Furthermore, an impressive 81 percent of its capacity is secured under 25-year power purchase agreements (PPAs), offering significant cash flow predictability.
Despite these strengths, the valuation does not incorporate any premium for enhanced execution or scale compared to industry peers due to specific risks associated with the company, including a concentration of capacity in the Khavda region (where 30 out of the anticipated 50 GW will be developed) and potential regulatory challenges.
Over the past three years, AGEL has recorded substantial growth, with its revenue, EBITDA, and profit after tax (PAT) expanding at compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 30%, 36%, and 57%, respectively. The company has also seen an increase in its EBITDA margin to 79% and a decline in its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 7.4 by FY25. Given the visibility surrounding its 50 GW target by 2030, projections suggest AGEL will achieve revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGR of 29%, 32%, and 41% from FY25 to FY28, with an EBITDA margin anticipated at 83%.
The stock is valued at 14 times the FY28 EBITDA, which corresponds to a run rate EBITDA for 28 GW in FY28. Coverage on AGEL is initiated with a Buy rating and a target price of ₹1,289 per share, reflecting a potential upside of 21 percent.
Published on November 18, 2025
