“My grandfather chose India over Pakistan, ensuring that Murshidabad remained part of this country, yet they have erased my name,” expressed Chhote Nawab Syed Reza Ali Mirza, a direct descendant of Mir Jafar, during an interview with the Times of India in Murshidabad. Just a few hundred meters away, a Hazarduari guide and a tonga puller echoed this sentiment. Despite possessing documents they believe are over 300 years old, their names have been excluded in the recent Systematic Identification of Residents (SIR) process. They maintain a deep faith in the Constitution and the electoral process, hopeful that their names will be reinstated, but their disappointment and feelings of exclusion are palpable.
Similar sentiments have emerged across various regions in south Bengal, including Chowringhee in Kolkata, Howrah Uttar, Howrah Madhya, Bhangar in South 24 Parganas, and Deganga in North 24 Parganas. Many residents assert that they have faced disenfranchisement despite having valid documentation. The frustration is exacerbated by the electoral context: of the 60,06,675 voters scrutinized, 27,16,393 names were removed. While new names have been added through Form 6, the total electorate now stands at 6,82,51,008—still 83,86,521 below pre-SIR levels, leading to lingering feelings of alienation in affected communities.
In Tikiapara, Howrah, Hafiz, an 85-year-old rickshaw puller, challenged Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, offering to substantiate his claims with documentation. In several minority neighborhoods, a mood of distrust persists. Many view the deletions as a targeted effort, directly associating them with their perceived loyalty to the ruling Trinamool Congress. The refrain “Didi ke harate chaye EC” (“the Election Commission wants to defeat Didi”) frequently arises. Local Trinamool representatives argue that those whose names remain on the voter rolls might feel more compelled to vote for the party.
Former minister and Kamarhati candidate Madan Mitra bluntly stated: even if only one vote remains valid, that vote goes to Trinamool. Many Muslim voters feel that Mamata Banerjee has fostered relative peace among communities, refraining from open discrimination and ensuring the continuity of welfare schemes. Under this view, voting for the Trinamool emerges less as an enthusiastic choice and more as a protective duty, particularly in areas where the party is seen as the only viable force to counter the BJP.
However, this consensus is not uniform. In regions like Bhangar, supporters of the Indian Secular Front (ISF) report discrimination from the Trinamool government regarding housing benefits. In Baharampur, Adhir Chowdhury accuses the ruling party of instigating a riot planned for 2024. Sabir Ahamed, director of the Sabar Institute, argues that the effects of SIR could ultimately consolidate minority support behind the ruling party, overshadowing visible discontent over issues like OBC reservation and the Waqf Bill. For many community members, the election becomes a matter of survival, potentially driving them toward the Trinamool, which has actively opposed SIR compared to other parties.
Ahamed’s analysis of deletion patterns indicates that while Muslim-dominated constituencies initially showed high registration, the under-adjudication data reveal a correlation between the deletion percentages and Muslim population ratios. Notably, large deletions have occurred in constituencies like Shamsherganj, Lalgola, Bhagabangola, Metiabruz, Farakka, and Mothabari.
Broader constituency data also corroborate significant deletions in Murshidabad, alongside notable losses in Malda, North Dinajpur, South 24 Parganas, and Matua-dominated areas elsewhere. Areas such as Domkal and Farakka, which were over 90% mapped, now suffer from extensive deletions. Researchers conducting analyses in high-profile constituencies like Bhowanipore and Nandigram find disproportionate deletion rates among Muslim voters, which has led to claims of biased methodologies.
Nevertheless, opinions vary on whether this trend will translate into an electoral advantage for the Trinamool. Political commentator Subhamoy Maitra asserts that there is no definitive evidence indicating that voters in Muslim-majority districts like Malda, Murshidabad, and North Dinajpur will shift allegiance solely due to the large-scale deletions. Some discontented voters may turn to Congress and the Left instead. He notes that the third front improved its vote share from 2021 and maintains a significant base, suggesting that the deletion of approximately 58.2 lakh names could adversely affect the ruling party, which has traditionally relied on organizational strength.
The Congress has mounted a vigorous campaign in Malda and Murshidabad, with Rahul Gandhi leading efforts in Shamsherganj. The party sees electoral potential in areas such as Sujapur, Malatipur, Ratua, and Chanchal in Malda, as well as Jalangi, Lalgola, Baharampur, Sagardighi, and Farakka in Murshidabad. The Left similarly aims to gain ground in constituencies like Khargram, Kandi, Domkal, and Murshidabad. In North Dinajpur and South Dinajpur, four-way contests are anticipated, where even minor shifts in voter loyalty could be decisive.
It is evident that Muslim voters have increasingly supported the Trinamool since 2011, accounting for approximately 27% of Bengal’s population. They often serve as the critical voting bloc that can determine election outcomes. In Muslim-majority districts like Malda and Murshidabad, the Trinamool’s vote share reportedly rose by almost 10 percentage points between 2011 and 2021. Meanwhile, Muslim representation in the Congress and the Left has dwindled, while that of the Trinamool has increased.
However, recent trends show that the ruling party is not entirely secure in these areas. The Trinamool experienced a setback in Murshidabad and fell behind in all 12 assembly segments of Malda, allowing the Congress and the Left to maintain relevance despite challenges. The lack of alliances and the emergence of factions like Humayun Kabir’s AJUP complicate the electoral landscape further.
Many attribute Mamata Banerjee’s appeal to her inclusive political stance, though some critique her for treating minority communities as a captive vote bank. Regardless, minority support remains fundamental to the Trinamool’s electoral strength. Following the SIR process, the discontent among minority voters is palpable, raising questions about whether this sentiment is substantial enough to galvanize support for Mamata Banerjee as she seeks a fourth term, amid clear signs of anti-incumbency. The outcome may become clearer in the forthcoming days.
