The global oil market has experienced a loss exceeding $50 billion in crude oil production since the onset of the Iran war nearly 50 days ago, an impact that analysts expect to reverberate for months and possibly years, as per calculations by Reuters and industry experts.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi indicated on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, following a ceasefire agreement reached in Lebanon. Simultaneously, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism that a resolution to the Iran war would materialize “soon,” though the exact timeframe remains uncertain.
Since the crisis commenced at the end of February, over 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate have been removed from the global market, according to Kpler data—marking the largest energy supply disruption in recent history.
To put this loss into perspective, the absence of 500 million barrels of oil translates to:
- A suspension of global aviation demand for 10 weeks;
- A halt in all road travel around the world for 11 days;
- A complete oil stoppage for the global economy lasting five days, as noted by Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie;
- Nearly one month’s worth of oil demand in the United States, or over a month’s supply for all of Europe,
- Approximately six years of fuel consumption for the U.S. military, based on an annual usage of around 80 million barrels in the fiscal year 2021;
- Sufficient fuel to sustain the international shipping industry for approximately four months.
Key details highlight that Gulf Arab nations lost about 8 million barrels per day in crude production during March, a volume nearly equivalent to the combined output of major oil companies Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
Jet fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman plummeted from approximately 19.6 million barrels in February to a mere 4.1 million barrels for March and April combined, as per Kpler data. This reduction would have been adequate for nearly 20,000 round-trip flights between New York’s JFK airport and London Heathrow, according to Reuters estimates.
With crude prices averaging around $100 per barrel since the conflict began, the lost production accounts for about $50 billion in lost revenues, according to Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler. This financial impact amounts to a 1% reduction in Germany’s annual gross domestic product, equating to the total GDP of smaller nations like Latvia or Estonia.
FULL RESTORATION COULD TAKE YEARS
While Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi claimed the Strait of Hormuz was operational, the recovery of oil production and flow is expected to be gradual. Global onshore crude inventories have already decreased by around 45 million barrels in April, according to Kpler, with production outages reaching approximately 12 million barrels per day since late March.
It is anticipated that output from heavier crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq might take four to five months to return to their normal operational levels, extending the depletion of oil stocks into the summer. Additionally, damage to refining capacity and issues at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex suggest that full restoration of regional energy infrastructure may require years.
Published on April 19, 2026.
