Rising US share carries both strategic value and diversification strategies | Photo Credit: iStockphoto
According to the global real time data and analytics provider Kpler, India’s crude oil imports from the US stood at 442,000 barrels per day (b/d) on a provisional basis last month, a 100 per cent growth on an annual basis. However, shipments declined more than 22 per cent m-o-m.
India imported 568,000 b/d in October 2025, the highest on record since the Covid-impacted 2022. Last month’s imports were the second highest on record, which is also higher than the country’s average shipments from the North American country.
India has so far on average imported around 316,000 b/d crude oil from the US in the current calendar year.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data also showed rising US crude cargoes to India. For instance, during January-September 2025, Washington’s cumulative crude oil exports stood at 2.89 million barrels per day (mb/d), which is a record high for the period, barring 2021 (3.43 mb/d).
broader strategy
Rising US share carries both strategic value and diversification strategies. Higher energy imports from Washington will help narrow India’s trade deficit with the latter and fit into New Delhi’s broader strategy of diversifying energy supply chains. The increase in crude trade also reinforces energy cooperation between India and the US.
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, told businessline “These flows were almost certainly contracted before the recent US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, given the 45–55-day voyage time, meaning the spike was not sanctions-driven but instead part of India’s ongoing effort to diversify its crude slate and strengthen energy security.”
He emphasised that the increase was primarily economics-led—a favourable arbitrage window, a wider Brent–WTI spread, and muted Chinese demand made WTI Midland competitive on a delivered basis—but the November 2025 drop shows the limits of this opportunity.
“Looking at current export trends from the US to India, December (2025) crude imports are expected to fall further to 300–350,000 b/d, with levels likely easing toward around 300,000 b/d thereafter,” Ritolia anticipated.
Longer voyages, higher freight, and WTI’s lighter, naphtha-rich yield continue to constrain structural upside. Even so, the elevated US presence in India’s crude basket underscores the deepening strategic energy alignment between the two countries and supports India’s broader diversification strategy balancing security, economics, and geopolitics, he explained.
Published on December 8, 2025
