MS on JSW Steel
OW, TP Rs 1300
Along with JFE’s technological expertise, JSW is looking to leverage its project execution capabilities to participate in multi-decade growth opportunities
JFE will invest ~Rs158bn in two tranches for a 50% stake, implying Rs315bn equity value for new entity
JSW Steel will receive Rs245bn in cash for slump sale of its stake
JSW will also get Rs79bn through equity dilution on back of a share swap agreement with promoter company that owns 17% of BPSL (totalling ~Rs324bn)
BPSL EV is estimated to be ~Rs530bn, with Rs315bn equity, Rs50bn existing BPSL debt, and Rs165bn additional debt to be raised by the entity.
CLSA on JSW Steel
U-P, TP Rs 890
Announced divestment & deconsolidation of Bhushan Power (BPSL) into a JV with its stake declining from 83% to 50% and JFE picking up 50% (JSW/promoter selling 33%/17%)
Deal values BPSL at Rs530bn, implying US$1,400/t of capacity and a forward EV/Ebitda of 13x
Estimate this to lead to a sharp reduction in JSW’s leverage and value accretion of Rs30-Rs70/share
For JFE, it provides operational access to a high growth market. We expect JSW to react positively to this transaction.
CITI on JSW Steel
Sell, TP Rs 915
JSW Steel’s board has approved divestment of a 50% stake in Bhushan Power & Steel (BPSL) for an effective EV of Rs531bn and amalgamation of Piombino Steel (entity owning BPSL) into JSW Steel.
Assuming an EBITDA/t of Rs12,000 (close to est JSW Steel’s EBITDA/t assuming safeguard duty is restored) and full utilization of 4.5mtpa capacity, transaction would imply an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x for BPSL (JSW Steel is currently trading at 9x)
Post transaction, BPSL would be deconsolidated from JSW Steel’s balance sheet with a reduction in JSW Steel’s consol ND/LTM EBITDA from 3.0x currently to 1.7x
BoFA Sec on JSW Steel
Buy, TP Rs 1290
JSW Steel has announced a strategic JV partnership with JFE Corp; BPSL to be transferred to the JV via slump sale
Deal values BPSL at 12-14x FY28E EV/EBITDA (vs 7-9x for covered Indian peers) and EV/t of US$1,300/t (vs US$400-1,100/t)
Transaction to help deleverage JSTL’s balance sheet meaningfully ahead of next leg of capacity expansion
JPM on JSW Steel
OW, TP Rs 1250
See JSW Steel’s 50:50 strategic JV with JFE for BPSL business as largely neutral-to-slightly positive over medium term
Enterprise value of deal at Rs530bn (Rs315bn equity & Rs210bn debt) implies an attractive EV/EBITDA multiple of 17x/11x on JPMe FY26/27E for BPSL
Deal will enable JSW to
a) deleverage its balance sheet by Rs370bn (effectively reducing ND/EBITDA by ~0.8x on JPMe) and/or provide improved BS strength to pursue accelerated capacity expansions,
b) enable continued collaboration on value added products with JFE (such as automotive steel and grain-oriented electric sheets).
Management expects deal to be completed in 6-9 months with key timelines being
1) slump sale cash consideration of Rs244.83bn by Mar-2026 (includes first tranche of Rs78.75bn by JFE),
2) second tranche of Rs78.75bn by JFE by June-2026, deconsolidation of existing Rs50bn debt into new entity & new debt issuance of Rs160bn taking total debt to Rs210bn,
3) post share swap, promoter stake in JSW Steel will rise by 1.42% to 46.74%.
Jefferies on JSW Steel
Buy, TP Rs 1400
See JSTL’s decision to transfer its subsidiary, BPSL, into a 50:50 joint venture with JFE as broadly neutral for EPS est. & fair value
Transaction will strengthen JSTL’s balance sheet, reducing its FY27E net debt/EBITDA from 2.4x to 1.7x
Partnership aims to upgrade BPSL’s product mix and improve productivity by leveraging JSTL’s operational capabilities with JFE’s technological expertise
MOSL on JSW Steel
Buy, TP Rs 1350
Enters into a strategic JV with JFE Steel Japan to jointly own & operate the BPSL business
Partnership to help JSW Steel (JSTL) reduce debt and focus on capacity expansion
As part of the deal, JSTL will receive Rs 320b in cash consideration
Its consolidated debt will reduce by Rs 350b (including INR50b of debt currently held by BSPL, which will also be removed from JSTL’s books).
JV is expected to raise debt of Rs 210b, which will be used to pay off JSTL as part of transaction
Nuvama on JSW Steel
Reduce, TP Rs 1050
Signed an agreement with JFE for a 50:50 JV, to which Bhushan Power (~83% stake held by JSW) is sold at an enterprise value of INR531bn (12.4x FY28E EV/EBITDA), higher than incorporated value of Rs 363bn
JSTL’s consolidated FY28E EBITDA will thus reduce by 11% & net debt by 50% (Rs373.5bn)
Reckon deal shall be value-accretive for JSTL as not only is the stake being sold at a higher value, but it infuses cash in business
This deal is likely to enhance JSTL’s fair value by INR37/share
HSBC on Tata Cons
Initiate Buy, TP Rs 1340
Tata Group’s flagship F&B company has scope to expand and deepen distribution to drive growth
Forecast a 26% FY25-28e CAGR for its Growth portfolio, contributing 37% of India revenue in FY28e, from 28% in FY25
Assign premium 55x PE as we believe aggressive acquisitions and distribution will pay off.
CITI on Tata Cons
Buy, TP Rs 1350
Management meet Key takeaways
(1) India tea growth likely to be volume-led with marginal pricing in 2H.
(2) India salt price growth to also anniversarize in 3Q.
(3) RTD business is back on a strong growth trajectory.
(4) Capital Foods portfolio growth to improve gradually (multiple initiatives).
(5) Sampann growth rates remain strong across categories.
(6) Consolidated business EBITDA margin to expand to 15% by 4Q, led primarily by the international business
Believe that TCPL is well placed to benefit from long-term growth opportunity; near-term, expect earnings to be driven by a strong margin recovery
Nomura on Oil & Gas
Middle distillate spreads soften from two-year highs; Henry Hub at one-year high, could impact MGL & IGL margins
Saudi LPG prices up 3-5%; OMCs & Gujarat Gas to be impacted most
INR depreciation accelerates; negative for OMCs and CGDs
Expect MGL with more than 30% of gas sourcing from HH-linked contracts to be most impacted while IGL may also be significantly impacted with ~18% gas sourcing from HH-linked contracts
GAIL may also be impacted negatively with only ~80% of its HH-linked US gas contract of 5.8mtpa is currently contracted on a back-to back basis, while the remaining ~20% volume is sold via brent linked contracts.
MOSL on Aurobindo Pharma
Buy, TP Rs 1430
Broad-based growth momentum building up
Domestic Pen-G/6-APA manufacturing positioned for healthy upside
Biosimilars, biologics CMO, and EU expansion drive diversification beyond legacy
Expect Co to deliver a CAGR of 9%/14%/21% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY26-28
Macquarie on India Quick Commerce
Amazon is accelerating the rollout of its quick commerce (QC) service, Amazon Now
Amazon Now charges no handling fees, free delivery above Rs99 order value
Offers cashback of Rs 50/100/200 on order values above Rs 399/749/1,399
Amazon Now’s cashback scheme (versus discounts) is attractive
We are constructive on Quick Commerce growth, but see material persistent losses
CLSA on Kotak Mahindra Bank
Hold , Target Price 2350
What if Kotak buys IDBI Bank?
EPS accretive; may or may not address excess capital; possible HR issues
IDBI – Clean balance sheet, good deposit franchise
Value accretion for Kotak would depend on how the purchase would be funded
Jefferies on Dr Reddy
Underperform , Target Price 1130
Met the CFO and IR of Dr Reddy’s
Company remains confident of first wave launches in Canada, India and other EMs incl Brazil
US FDA filing for biosimilar Abatacept, Dr Reddy’s biggest asset, is on track this month with approval expected in 12-months
M&A will focus on brands, not full companies
GS on Metals
Industrial metals prices have rallied YTD, supported by expected US Fed rate cuts, dollar depreciation, and improving China growth expectations
Additional boosts from supply disruptions, policy changes, and the Al capex boom
GS maintains a selective 2026 outlook, with copper as the preferred metal
Raises H1 2026 LME copper price forecast to $10,710 (from $10,415)
Strong supply growth – mainly from Chinese overseas investments — drives a bearish outlook for aluminum, lithium, and iron ore
Expects price declines by end-2026:
* Aluminum: -18%
* Lithium: -23%
* Iron ore: -17%
