Global commodity prices are projected to decline by nearly 7 percent in 2026, marking the continuation of a four-year downward trend. This decrease is attributed to slower global economic growth, ongoing trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and an abundance of oil supplies. Conversely, precious metals are expected to rise by approximately 5 percent next year, building on a substantial investment-driven gain of over 40 percent observed in 2025, according to a report released by financial services firm Prabhudas Lilladher.
In the metals market, global copper prices have surged to nearly $11,200 per tonne due to tight supply and mining disruptions. The report highlights that gold achieved a record high of $4,370 per ounce in late October 2025, while Indian gold prices were around Rs 1,27,500 per 10 grams amid festive demand and a preference for safe-haven assets. Although base metals such as copper, aluminium, and zinc are expected to be supported by restricted supply and steady demand, significant price increases are unlikely without major market disruptions. Precious metals, including gold and silver, are anticipated to maintain their status as safe-haven investments, responding to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, inflation trends, and geopolitical developments.
Energy prices are expected to dip by about 10 percent in 2026, following a 12 percent decrease in 2025. While metals and minerals are predicted to remain stable, agricultural commodities may see a slight reduction due to ample supply. In October, global crude oil markets faced challenges; however, India’s fuel consumption reached a five-month high, with demand rising 7.7 percent from September to 20.17 million metric tonnes due to post-monsoon transport needs.
Gasoline demand rose by 8 percent, and diesel demand increased by 12.2 percent month-on-month. The domestic price of oil-linked natural gas for November was set at $6.55 per MMBtu, down from $6.96 in October. The report noted that oversupply from OPEC+ and rising exports from non-OPEC countries continue to exert downward pressure on prices, although geopolitical shocks or an uptick in industrial fuel demand could lead to short-term spikes.
Agricultural commodities demonstrated seasonal patterns, as indicated by a decline in the Agricultural Commodity Price Index (ACPI) in October, attributed to robust harvests and plentiful global supplies of grains, oilseeds, and beverages. In India, consistent arrivals of wheat, rice, and oilseeds have kept domestic prices stable. Prabhudas Lilladher warned that while extreme weather, elevated input costs, or stronger global trade could potentially raise prices, slower growth and high inventory levels may exert downward pressure.
Looking forward, the firm forecasts that Brent crude oil, a global price benchmark derived from North Sea crude, will average between $60 and $70 per barrel in 2026. Downside risks could push prices to $56 if surplus supplies persist, while upside potential could see prices exceed $85 in the event of disruptions. Gold may rise to $4,500 per ounce, while silver prices are expected to fluctuate between $50 and $60 per ounce through 2025. The World Bank is anticipating a mild 2 percent decline in the agricultural price index in 2026, suggesting a subdued overall commodity outlook.
Published on November 30, 2025.
