India may experience significant demand for urea and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) in November and December, as sales of these essential fertilizers have more than doubled in the first week of November compared to the same period last year.
Historically, November and December contribute to nearly half of the rabi sales of urea and DAP, which totaled 249 lakh tonnes (mt) last year. Given the unexpected surge in demand, maintaining supply could prove challenging.
Recent data indicates that the opening stocks as of November 1 were: urea 50.54 lakh tonnes (lt), down from 68.16 lt a year ago; DAP 19.05 lt, up from 11.52 lt; Muriate of Potash (MOP) 7.33 lt, slightly down from 7.41 lt; and complex fertilizers, which combine nutrients, 36.21 lt, an increase from 31.13 lt last year. Demand predictions for November estimate urea at 43.54 lt, DAP at 17.19 lt, MOP at 3.35 lt, and complex formulations at 18.85 lt.
According to an industry source, except for urea, the current opening stock levels should adequately meet demand for November. Nevertheless, additional supplies from newly produced fertilizers and imported stocks are expected to bolster availability.
Agricultural experts warn that the government may face challenges in managing fertilizer supplies, as was the case during the kharif season, due to coordination issues between the Agriculture and Fertilizer Ministries. Observers note that timely sharing of crucial information between these ministries has been lacking.
Last season’s upsurge in urea demand was attributed to increased acreage dedicated to paddy and maize, a situation cited by Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan as a contributing factor to farmers’ complaints about fertilizer shortages. Experts emphasize the need for a preemptive assessment of crop preferences to inform future supply planning.
Following a profitable wheat season last year, where many farmers received prices exceeding minimum support prices, it is anticipated that wheat planting may increase this year. The initial sowing reports indicate a surge, largely attributed to earlier-than-usual harvests of paddy crops in several regions.
From November 1-7, sales figures revealed urea sales of 6.18 lt (up from 2.58 lt), DAP at 3.49 lt (up from 1.43 lt), MOP at 0.49 lt (up from 0.27 lt), and complex fertilizers at 3.10 lt (up from 1.60 lt). Furthermore, total land under cultivation has expanded by 27% to over 130 lakh hectares (lh) as of November 10, compared to 102 lh the previous year, with wheat acreage increasing from 10 lh to 22.7 lh.
Despite reports of fertilizer shortages last rabi season, particularly for urea and DAP during peak sowing periods, the sales of these fertilizers were higher in November-December 2024 compared to the previous year.
On November 13, the Fertilizer Ministry announced a collaborative initiative with the Department of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare aimed at securing the fertilizer supply chain through extensive inspections and raids on retailers and dealers, totaling 317,054 since April. The government remains dedicated to ensuring adequate fertilizer availability this season as well.
Published on November 14, 2025.
