At the core of this election in Bihar lies a complex narrative centered around Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has served for two decades. The two key themes are his governance record—highlighting the transformation of Bihar from its notorious ‘jungle raj’ to a functioning state—and growing concerns over unemployment and voter fatigue stemming from his long tenure. This has sparked a demand for badlaav (change).
This election reflects classic Indian electoral dynamics, where daily issues impacting constituents take the forefront, laced with significant caste considerations. A generational divide characterizes the electorate: those who have lived through the earlier regimes of RJD supremo Lalu Yadav and his wife, Rabri Devi, tend to appreciate Kumar’s contributions, while younger voters, with no memories of that period, may question the adequacy of his change.
The Bihar assembly election, divided into two phases on November 6 and November 11, unfolds against a politically turbulent backdrop fueled by Kumar’s frequent shifts in alliances. Currently, his Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] is allied with the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] and several regional parties under the National Democratic Alliance [NDA], while the RJD and Congress combine as the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance).
In the 2020 assembly polls, the NDA secured 125 out of 243 seats, garnering a vote share of 37.26%, with the BJP and JD(U) winning 74 and 43 seats respectively. The opposition managed 110 seats, with the RJD achieving 75 seats and Congress 19, followed by a vote share of 37.23%.
These figures indicate a fragmented electoral landscape with minimal differences in vote shares between the alliances. The complexities of this electoral arithmetic underline the significance of pressing issues that heavily influence voter sentiment. Additionally, the entrance of former poll strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party adds more competition to an already crowded field.
Ultimately, Kumar’s political fate hinges on the public sentiment surrounding him—both the positive and negative perspectives shape his electoral viability and provide space for Tejashwi Yadav to make his case.
Advantage Nitish
In Minapur village near Muzaffarpur, a group of men gather over tea to discuss the political climate. Their consensus points to a preference for the NDA. “Vikas dikhayi deta hai” (the development is visible), they echo, crediting Kumar for his leadership.
Rajneesh Kumar, a 45-year-old hardware store owner, reflects, “We have seen what the state was under the RJD regime. The fact that we have emerged from that horror is significant.” He lists Kumar’s accomplishments, including improved law enforcement, infrastructure development, and women-centric policies, apprehensive of an RJD return to power.
Kumar ascended to the chief ministership in 2005, inheriting a state plagued by instability and stagnation. His commitment to development earned him the title of Sushasan Babu (good governance leader), contrasting sharply with the past RJD administration’s record. This aspect remains central to Kumar’s appeal.
The period of RJD governance, marked by rampant crime, corruption, and economic decline, remains a contentious backdrop for many voters. Yadav’s image is weakened by this association, which burdens his campaign’s credibility among those who experienced that era.
Vinay Jaiswal, a 52-year-old teacher, shares a similar sentiment, emphasizing the visible infrastructure improvements under Kumar’s tenure, likening the past RJD rule to a time of neglect. Kumar’s proactive approach to women’s issues has established a loyal voter base among women, who have turned out to vote increasingly in recent elections.
With women risking higher turnout rates than men, Kumar’s initiatives, such as transferring ₹10,000 to women beneficiaries through the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana, resonate positively with this demographic.
In Pipra village, Shilpi Kumari, a widow, expresses her trust in Kumar’s initiatives. “I will vote for him,” she states, illustrating how the government’s support has influenced her perception of security and opportunity.
Kumar’s alliance with the BJP and its association with popular leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi further strengthens his electoral prospects, fostering support from various caste groups, including upper castes, extremely backward classes, and some Dalits.
Advantage Tejashwi
However, Kumar’s lengthy tenure raises concerns about long-term anti-incumbency, generating voter fatigue and a desire for a change. While there may not be overwhelming dissatisfaction, the call for badlaav resonates among segments of the electorate seeking fresh leadership.
With approximately 1.41 million first-time voters aged 18 to 19 in the state, many are unaware of the RJD’s past and view Kumar’s accomplishments as insufficient. Unemployment, especially among younger constituents, heightens the stakes for Yadav’s campaign.
Yadav has capitalized on unemployment issues, promising to provide one government job for every household if elected, offering hope to young voters amidst Kumar’s perceived shortcomings in job creation.
Concerns about Kumar’s age and health issues also surface among voters, with skepticism regarding the durability of his achievements. Additionally, Kumar’s liquor prohibition policy faces criticism, with some arguing it has inadvertently fostered drug problems among youth.
While Kumar may benefit from a caste coalition, his NDA alliance’s association with majoritarian politics may alienate minority voters, placing Yadav in a comparatively stronger position.
Bihar beyond caste
Caste dynamics continue to shape Bihar’s electoral scene, but subtle shifts towards broader coalitions are emerging. Kumar has established a track record with women, while both Kishor and Yadav seek to unite youth around common issues and aspirations.
This evolving landscape signals a potential departure from traditional caste-based voting patterns, as issues like development, jobs, and corruption gain prominence, reflecting changing voter priorities.
As the election approaches, Kumar’s considerable governance record must contend with the rising narrative of joblessness and voter aspirations for change, which could redefine Bihar’s political future.
