Gold prices are anticipated to remain in a corrective phase in the upcoming week, largely influenced by key U.S. inflation data, ongoing uncertainties regarding trade tariffs, and vital economic indicators from China, analysts indicate.
Traders will be closely monitoring comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials for insight into the monetary policy outlook, which is expected to influence the short-term direction of bullion prices. Pranav Mer, Vice President of Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, stated, “Gold prices are likely to experience some consolidation or further correction as the focus shifts to inflation numbers, the U.S. Supreme Court’s hearings on tariffs, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and Chinese economic data.”
Despite a slight decline in gold prices over the past week, Mer noted that the metal is primarily range-bound, with a stronger dollar and subdued physical demand from retail buyers contributing to the limitations on price increases. The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook, exacerbated by the ongoing federal government shutdown, is expected to delay the release of key macroeconomic data, complicating the Federal Reserve’s considerations for their next meeting.
“Traders are cautious, particularly with the impending U.S. Supreme Court ruling concerning the legality of Trump’s trade tariffs. This outcome is likely to heighten volatility across financial markets, especially in gold,” Mer added.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery fell by ₹165, or 0.14%, settling at ₹1,21,067 per 10 grams on Friday. “MCX gold futures have been trading within a range of ₹1,17,000-1,22,000 per 10 grams. Factors influencing gold prices in the near term include a weak U.S. labor market report, safe-haven demand, the prospect of potential interest rate cuts in the U.S., and ongoing central bank purchases,” noted Prathamesh Mallya, DVP of Research in Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One. He also remarked that gold is on track for its best annual performance since 1979, suggesting that continued fundamental factors may drive further price volatility and potential rallies in gold.
In international markets, Comex gold futures for December delivery experienced a gain of $13.3, or 0.33%, during the past week, closing at $4,009.8 per ounce on Friday. Riya Singh, a Research Analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services, mentioned, “Gold hovered near $4,000 an ounce this week, stabilizing after significant fluctuations caused by changing expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy and labor market data.” The precious metal saw a brief surge following reports indicating the highest level of job cuts in October by U.S. firms in over two decades, supporting the case for a December rate cut. However, mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials and the lack of critical inflation data due to the government shutdown have tempered optimism.
Despite retreating 10% from a record high of over $4,390, gold is on track for its third consecutive weekly loss but remains up more than 50% year-to-date, marking its strongest performance since 1979. Singh attributed this surge to rate cuts, robust central bank purchases exceeding 600 tons so far in 2025, and steady inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Nonetheless, she cautioned that bullion ETFs observed outflows in the last two weeks of October as investors took profits.
Silver prices also saw limited movement over the week, following a similar trend to gold and other industrial metals. On the MCX, December silver futures dropped ₹559, or 0.38%, settling at ₹1,47,728 per kilogram on Friday. Comex silver futures likewise edged lower, closing at $48.14 per ounce. Singh highlighted that silver maintained stability above the $48 per ounce threshold, buoyed by safe-haven demand amid concerns about the U.S. government shutdown and shifting expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.
The recent U.S. decision to classify silver, alongside copper and uranium, as critical minerals represents a significant policy shift. This move increases the total number of identified critical minerals to 60, potentially leading to new tariffs and trade restrictions under the administration’s Section 232 investigations. Singh explained, “The U.S. heavily depends on imported silver for various industrial applications, including electronics, solar panels, and medical devices. Any tariff measures could disrupt global supply chains and heighten price volatility.”
Mer noted that silver’s price movement appears to be consolidative to corrective as it remains below the ₹1,50,000-1,51,000 per kilogram range, with key support situated at ₹1,39,300-1,38,000 per kilogram. “While policy uncertainties and profit-taking could hinder sharp gains, consistent industrial demand, geopolitical risks, and a weak U.S. dollar are expected to provide solid support for silver prices above $47.55 per ounce in the coming sessions.”
Published on November 9, 2025.
