Bihar remains one of India’s key political states, notable for being one of the few in the Hindi heartland where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has never attained a majority on its own.
The impending battle for 243 assembly seats, with 122 needed for government formation, is influenced by shifting coalitions, caste dynamics, candidate backgrounds, and the increasing influence of women voters. An essential consideration in this electoral cycle is whether the inclusion of political strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party will change the electoral landscape. Additionally, questions linger about the durability of Nitish Kumar’s two-decade leadership.
For nearly two decades, the political dynamics in Bihar’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) followed a cliché: the Janata Dal (United) led while the BJP trailed, with two exceptions where the former allied with the Rashtriya Janata Dal for about three years. The 2025 elections are pivotal for the JD(U), as the BJP approaches parity in strength. Each party is vying for 101 seats, with the remaining being contested by other NDA alliance entities.
This turn of events follows the 2020 elections, where the BJP outperformed the JD(U). Historically, from 2005 to 2010, the JD(U) contended for roughly 50 more seats than the BJP, solidifying its status as the dominant entity. However, the 2020 elections signaled a shift, wherein the BJP contested only five fewer seats than the JD(U) and won two-thirds of the contested seats.
The intertwined relationship of crime and politics is a persistent issue in Bihar. While the term ‘Jungleraj’ often accompanies references to RJD’s rule, all major parties in the state have a troubling record concerning candidates’ criminal backgrounds. Of the 1,303 candidates contesting for 121 seats in the first phase, 354 (27%) had serious criminal charges at the time of nomination, according to data from the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR). These serious offenses, which carry sentences of five years or more, include murder, kidnapping, assault, and sexual crimes.
The RJD possessed the highest prevalence of candidates with such charges, with 42 of 70 candidates (60%) affected. The BJP had 27 out of 48 candidates (56%), while the Congress party had 12 out of 23 (52%), and the newly-formed Jan Suraaj Party exhibited 49 out of 114 candidates (43%). In contrast, the JD(U) had the lowest incidence, with merely 15 of 57 candidates (26%) facing severe charges. Regarding sitting MLAs, nearly half (49%) of Bihar’s 241 legislators have serious criminal charges on their records.
Women have emerged as a powerful voting demographic in Bihar, a trend bolstered by welfare and cash-transfer initiatives aimed at them. Additionally, the outmigration of men for work has contributed to the increased electoral presence of women.
Women’s voter turnout has consistently outperformed men’s in the last three elections. In 2010, women’s turnout was 54.5%, in contrast to 51.5% for men. This gap expanded in 2015, with women’s turnout at 60.5% versus men’s 53.3%. Even in 2020, while male turnout increased to 54.5%, women maintained a robust 59.7%.
However, this electoral strength has not translated to political representation. Women’s representation in the assembly dropped from 14% in 2010 to 10.7% in 2020. Data from ADR also indicates that women constituted only about 9% of candidates in the first phase of the 2025 elections. While this trend is prevalent across various states, Bihar remains one of the ten states with the highest levels of women representation.
