Macquarie on HUL
O-P, TP Rs 3000
Steady demand recovery & reversal of 200bps impact from GST transition drive HUVR’s expectations of 2H sales growth above the 4% seen in 1H.
EPS unchanged as HUVR retains 22-23% FY26E EBITDA margin guidance despite 2Q beat; sees 50-60bps benefit to reported margin from ice cream demerger.
Co’s focus on premiumisation and volumes meets improving demand conditions.
MS on HUL
EW, TP Rs 2335
2H>1H: Price growth to remain in low single-digits in F2H.
Winter & harvesting season are key monitorables.
GST transition affected F2Q volume growth by 2%.
QoQ gross margin improvement of 135bp offset the cost of trade support.
Trading conditions are expected to be normal from early November.
Returning trade pipeline to the usual four- to six-week levels will take a few months.
Demand is currently stable across rural and urban markets
Ice cream business demerger will add 50-60bp to overall margins to the earlier guidance of 22-23%.
GS on HUL
Buy, TP Rs 2850
2Q largely in-line
volume growth in 2Q impacted by GST transition headwinds
Growth recovery likely in 2H, but the pace of improvement is likely to be slower than expected
New CEO outlines volume led revenue growth has the top priority
CLSA on HUL
U-P, TP Rs 1966
Portfolio renovation with focus on volume-led growth is key focus
Home care: Liquids drive growth; price growth negative
Beauty sector growth driven by skin care; personal care faces volume decline
Foods business up 3% YoY with low-single-digit UVG
CITI on Colgate
Sell, TP Rs 2100
2Q revenue and EBITDA declined 6% YoY
Performance was impacted by a tough operating environment (elevated competitive intensity), high comps and a transitory impact of trade destocking ahead of the implementation of GST rate cuts (impacting the company’s entire oral care portfolio).
Going ahead, expect gradually improving growth trajectory near-term –
(a) easing comps in 2HFY26E,
(b) destocking impact partially recouped (gradual in our view)
(c) near-term benefits from grammage increase in LUP portfolio
CLSA on Colgate
Hold, TP Rs 2130
Colgate missed est. across board driven by weak sales growth
Sales decline of 6.3% YoY, 6% below our expectation
Margin expansion offset by lower sales growth
New innovations in body wash portfolio
Cut FY26-28CL est. by 4%
Nomura on Colgate
Reduce, TP Rs 2200
2QFY26: Volume decline of 8.5% y-y was higher than expected; sales decline of 6.3% y-y was largely in line
Margins held up & were in line; but 2H to see only a minor recovery
GPM expanded due to lower input prices, but negative operating leverage limits OPM
Jefferies on Colgate
Buy, TP Rs 2700
Reported yet another decline in revenues, Ebitda and earnings during 2QFY26.
Management blamed transitory issues related to GST rate cut which resulted in destocking across the value chain, along with a high base.
Premium portfolio, however, performed well, per mgmt.
Cut EPS by 4-5% – stock will stay rangebound until there is a growth pickup
Nuvama on Colgate
Buy, TP cut to Rs 2870
Q2 weak as expected.
Revenue declined 6.2% YoY—in line with estimate—affected by GST rate cut and high base (up 10% YoY in Q2FY25), and EBITDA decreased 6.4% YoY.
In our view, toothpaste volume fell 4% YoY on a base of 8–9% YoY in Q2FY25.
HUL’s oral care suffered a marginal decline, whereas Dabur’s oral care is likely to report a strong performance.
Colgate’s gross margin increased 91bp YoY while EBITDA margin is flat YoY.
ICICI SEC on Colgate
Sell, TP Rs 1800
Q2 reaffirms that business remains structurally fatigued, with no visible triggers for a turnaround.
Revenue declined 6.2% YoY, implying a 7-8% volume decline amid GST-led destocking & continued competitive intensity
Fact remains, a category leader in daily-use essential(s) continues to lose momentum, with innovation & premiumisation failing to drive any meaningful recovery
Valuation at 40x Sep’27E P/E leaves little room for patience
Jefferies on Laurus Labs
U-P, TP raised to Rs 700
Q2 beat est. led by strong performance in ARV sales due to shipment timing, however overall outlook for segment remains muted.
CDMO sales remained steady, supported by commercial animal health supplies
Co announced US$600m capex (over 8 years) for a new Vizag site & plans to invest in modalities like ADC & CGT, implying long investment phase.
GS on Laurus Labs
Sell TP Rs 775
Strong 2Q with Sales/EBITDA growing 35%/126% yoy (above GSe ) with revenue surprise coming largely from Generic FDF business (+32% vs GSe) while CDMO business was flat qoq (+53% yoy).
EBITDA margin improved to 24.4% (+239bps vs GSe, flat qoq), due to improvement in GMs (+468bps yoy, better mix) and operating leverage.
While co did not provide quantitative topline guidance for FY26, management noted that they have laid out a strong foundation for FY26 and expect to reach 1.1x Asset turns in next 24 months, from 0.9x currently.
Kotak Securities on Laurus Labs
Recommendation Sell, Target Price: ₹625
View: A positive, albeit not the perfect, outcome
ARV lumpiness and higher commercial CDMO mix led to a 19% operating beat
CDMO business remains on firm footing; investments in differentiated platforms are positive
However, valuations remain untenable
DAM Cap on Laurus Labs
Buy TP Rs 1083
Another good quarter; EBITDA in-line with DAM est but sharp beat on consensus.
CDMO traction continued; Strong GM (~60%) and strong OCF generation (aided by reduction in NWC) which led to reduction in net debt / leverage
Positive surprise; Mgt remains optimistic on outlook driven by CDMO ramp-up – maintains guidance of hitting 1.1x gross asset turnover (from 0.9x) over next few quarters;
GMs to stay strong – should lead to further EBITDAM expansion
MS on Bharat Forge
EW. TP Rs 1050
Media reports suggest that India’s army has signed a contract with Bharat Forge (BFL) and PLR Systems to acquire 425k close quarter battle (CBQ) carbines.
Total order size of Rs27.7bn; BFL had earlier stated that co is an L1 bidder for supply of 60% of the total order.
June 25, defense orderbook stood at Rs94.6bn, & addition of this order would take it to Rs108.6bn
Expect defense business to rise to 18% of F27 top line vs 12% in F25
Weak US Class 8 truck demand and US tariffs headwinds remain.
Morgan Stanley on Autos & Airlines
As per Vahan data, India’s PV and 2W retail sales rose 17% and 20% YoY respectively in the 30 days since Navratri.
Maruti (PVs) and Hero MotoCorp (2Ws) recorded the biggest MoM market share gains.
Dealer checks indicate that discounts are easing from elevated levels.
Expect OEMs to guide for price hikes in Q2 earnings.
Airlines: Festive trends remain muted — domestic capacity up ~1% YoY, while domestic PAX is flat YoY.
MS on Energy
Reduced Russian crude has limited impact on Indian refiners
Retailers affected but Brent below $70/bbl keeps earnings upcycle intact.
Tight global refining system tightening further
Top picks are HPCL & Reliance Ind
CITI on Defence
India’s DAC approved Rs79,000cr (~US$9bn) in capital acquisition proposals covering missiles, surveillance systems, naval guns, torpedoes, sensors, ammunition, autonomous aerial systems, and high mobility vehicles
FYTD approvals total ~Rs2.51 lakh cr, up from ~Rs2.22 lakh cr in FY25, indicating strong defence procurement momentum
Orders include both long- and short-gestation projects for Army (Nag Missile Mk-Il, GBMES, High Mobility Vehicles), Navy/Coast Guard (Landing Platform Docks, 30mm Naval Gun, torpedoes, EOIRST, smart ammunition), and Air Force (CLRTS/DS)
AoN allows procurement to proceed with vendor selection and contract finalization; payments are milestone-based and spread over multiple years
BEL could benefit from GBMES, EOIRST, and subsystems for naval platforms
HAL may participate in CLRTS/DS, while L&T is likely to benefit from landing platform dock orders
Nuvama on Cipla
Target price Rs1,725 vs Rs1,651 (maintain Hold)
Cipla-Eli Lilly sign distribution agreement for tirzepatide in India
India market lucrative and evolving rapidly; Mounjaro sales a testament
Eli Lilly on track to record Rs900cr in secondary sales in FY26E
Cipla gets a head start in India’s untapped GLP-1 market via Yurpeak launch
Build in Rs360cr/Rs370cr revenue from Yurpeak in FY26E/FY27E and Rs410cr from semaglutide generic in FY27E
Revenue/PAT revision by 1%/ 1% for FY26E and 4%/ 3% for FY27E
