JP Morgan analysts issued a bullish forecast for gold prices on Thursday, predicting an average of $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. This projection is founded on demand assumptions indicating that investor interest and central bank purchases could average around 566 tons per quarter in 2026, as detailed in a recent bank note.
“Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle,” stated Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan. Gregory Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Strategy, added that a “Fed cutting cycle, coupled with concerns about stagflation, Fed independence, and broader hedging against debasement,” supports the potential for gold’s increase in value.
The analysts addressed the current performance of the dollar, suggesting that its rally does not indicate a de-dollarization or debasement scenario, but rather a diversification trend among foreign holders of U.S. assets, who are gradually shifting small amounts into gold. They also emphasized that the recent market consolidation is healthy, characterizing the pullback as a period where the market adjusts to the rapid price increases observed since August.
“It’s normal if you’re paralyzed with fear, because the price moved so fast … It’s just a very clean story — you have a lot of buyers, and you have no sellers,” Kaneva remarked. She reiterated a long-term target for gold of $6,000 per ounce by 2028, emphasizing the importance of considering gold investments over a multi-year horizon. Spot gold reached record highs this year, with a recent peak of $4,381.21 on Monday, reflecting a significant year-to-date increase of nearly 57% and paving the way for its strongest annual performance since 1979.
Published on October 23, 2025.
