Gold prices are anticipated to remain volatile in the upcoming week as traders assess domestic festive demand alongside physical market premiums, key macroeconomic data, and political developments in the United States, analysts indicated.
Investors will closely watch comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, scheduled for Tuesday, which could offer insights into short-term gold price trajectories.
“In the next week, attention will center on physical demand for bullion during India’s festive season, coupled with global political and geopolitical developments, particularly the passage of the US spending bill and efforts towards resuming diplomacy to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These factors are likely to influence gold price trends in the upcoming months,” stated Pranav Mer, Vice President of EBG – Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd.
Mer noted that gold prices concluded the week positively but maintained elevated volatility, with sharp corrections followed by renewed buying at lower levels. “This pattern was expected to continue as market dynamics between bulls and bears evolve at market peaks.”
He emphasized a lack of significant changes on the fundamental side, particularly with ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs. President Donald Trump’s recent announcement regarding tariffs on China has heightened demand for gold as a safe haven.
Last week, gold prices surged by ₹3,251, or 2.75 percent, reaching a record high of ₹1,23,677 per 10 grams on Thursday. However, this rally experienced a temporary pullback towards the week’s end on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX).
“Gold prices have seen an impressive rally in recent months, achieving over 50 percent gains year-to-date in 2025. This prompted profit-taking on Thursday, resulting in a price correction exceeding ₹3,000 from the highs of ₹1,23,677 per 10 grams and contributing to significant volatility in the yellow metal,” remarked Prathamesh Mallya, DVP of Research for Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One.
Market analysts also cited US monetary policy as a crucial influence. Pankaj Singh, Founder and Principal Researcher of SmartWealth.ai, noted that minutes from the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting reinforced expectations of ongoing inflationary trends and balance-sheet reduction, both of which support gold prices.
On the international front, Comex gold futures for December delivery ended marginally higher at $4,000.40 per ounce after peaking at $4,081 during midweek trading. Spot gold rose by 1.06 percent to $4,018.30 per ounce before reaching a record $4,059.34 per ounce.
“The week started with bullion gains driven by safe-haven flows as markets hedged against enduring US fiscal risks and speculated on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. However, sentiment shifted midweek,” noted Riya Singh, Research Analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services.
Despite short-term cooling, analysts maintain a positive outlook on the broader trajectory. Gold remains on track for its eighth consecutive weekly advance, having climbed nearly 14 percent this quarter, reflecting sustained investor preference for tangible assets amidst concerns over US debt surpassing $36 trillion and rising inflation expectations despite slowing economic growth, Singh added.
Physical demand from Asia moderated last week, as elevated prices discouraged new purchases, particularly in China and India, where import premiums narrowed. The short-term outlook will now depend on forthcoming US inflation data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials.
Meanwhile, silver has continued its historic rally, albeit with heightened volatility. On the MCX, silver prices increased by ₹722, or 0.49 percent, over the past week, reaching an all-time high of ₹1,53,388 per kilogram on Thursday.
On a global scale, Comex silver futures for December delivery attained a high of $49.96 per ounce on Friday, while spot silver briefly exceeded $51 per ounce on Thursday, closing at $50.29.
Riya Singh of Emkay Global Financial Services stated that “silver’s historic surge peaked last week, with spot prices climbing to $51.24 an ounce on Thursday, marking the highest level since 1980 before correcting to around $50 amid significant volatility and supply constraints.” She emphasized that the white metal remains the standout performer of 2025, registering a remarkable 70 percent year-to-date gain fueled by industrial demand, speculative interest, and safe-haven flows.
Additionally, severe tightness in the London bullion market has amplified price fluctuations, with the implied one-month lease rate surging to 11 percent, the highest since 2022, indicating a scarcity of lendable silver. Aggressive shipments of bullion to the US, driven by tariff concerns, have reduced London inventories to multi-year lows, altering the usual premiums and discounts of up to $2.50 per ounce compared to Comex futures in New York.
“Sustained tightness in London and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties could maintain upward momentum, though volatility is likely to persist as speculative long positions reach their most extended levels in years,” she added.
Published on October 12, 2025.
