NEW DELHI: An opinion poll conducted by C Voter has revealed that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U))-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have a 40 percent chance of retaining power in the upcoming Bihar election. The survey, released on Friday, indicated that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan follows closely with a 38.3 percent possibility of forming the government. New entrant Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj ranked third, receiving 13.3 percent in the preference list.
When it comes to preferred candidates for the position of chief minister, Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD emerged as the most popular choice, gathering 36.5 percent support in the polls. He was followed by Prashant Kishor, who received 23.2 percent, Nitish Kumar, the incumbent chief minister, garnered 15.9 percent, while Chirag Paswan secured 8.8 percent.
In terms of addressing Bihar’s challenges, 36.5 percent of respondents favored the Mahagathbandhan, while 34.3 percent supported the NDA, 12.8 percent chose Jan Suraaj, and 9.4 percent believed no one could solve the problems.
Tejashwi Yadav has made significant promises, including a government job for every household within 20 days of taking office, asserting that the NDA has failed to provide jobs for youths over the last 20 years. “We will bring the Act within 20 days of coming to power and ensure its implementation within 20 months,” he stated during a press conference.
As preparations intensify for what the Election Commission is calling the “mother of elections,” seat-sharing negotiations among various parties are nearing conclusion. Both the NDA and INDIA bloc continue to confront differences over seat allocations, with smaller allies seeking a greater share.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party recently announced a list of 51 candidates. Meanwhile, senior BJP leader and Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan has arrived in Patna to discuss these matters with senior party officials. Sources within the BJP state that seat-sharing arrangements in the NDA will be finalized shortly, with an initial candidate list expected to be released soon thereafter.
The JD(U), also an NDA ally, is anticipated to announce its candidate list soon. Reports suggest that the NDA partners are likely to contest approximately 102 seats for the JD(U) and 101 for the BJP. In contrast, Union minister Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is advocating for an increase in seat allocations, now demanding around 45 segments, up from the previously settled 20–22 seats.
In the opposition coalition, RJD is projected to contest between 135 and 140 seats, having proposed to Congress around 50–52 seats, which is less than their request for 70. A senior RJD leaders’ meeting is set to take place in Patna to finalize the list of candidates.
In the 2020 assembly elections, the BJP contested 110 seats, winning 74, with a vote share of 19.8%, and a strike rate of 43.2%. The JD(U) contested 115 seats, winning 43 with a 15.7% vote share and a strike rate of 33.5%.
The Election Commission has announced that the Bihar Assembly elections will be conducted in two phases on November 6 and November 11, with results to be counted on November 14. The final elector count stands at 7.42 crore, down from 7.89 crore as of June 24, following the removal of 65 lakh voters from the draft list, which currently lists 7.24 crore electors as of August 1, 2025.
