Benchmark indices closed slightly lower on Monday, with the Nifty marking its seventh consecutive day of decline as investors remained cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy announcement scheduled for October 1.
The Sensex ended down 61.52 points, or 0.08 percent, at 80,364.94, after reaching an intraday high of 80,851.38. Similarly, the Nifty 50 declined by 19.80 points, or 0.08 percent, to close at 24,634.90.
“Indian markets opened positively, reflecting encouraging global cues, but experienced volatility throughout the session. The benchmark Nifty fluctuated within a narrow range of 24,800 to 24,600 before concluding near the day’s close,” commented Ashika Institutional Equities in its market analysis.
Sectoral performance was mixed, with PSU Banks leading the gains, up 1.89 percent, followed by the Oil & Gas sector at 1.4 percent, and both energy and realty sectors gaining around 1 percent each. The Nifty Bank increased by 71.65 points, or 0.13 percent, to 54,461.00, while the Nifty Financial Services index finished at 26,007.00, up 21.75 points, or 0.08 percent.
In the midcap segment, the Nifty Midcap 100 rose by 154.60 points, or 0.27 percent, to 56,533.15, while the Nifty Next 50 surged 690.15 points, or 1.03 percent, to 67,835.10. Conversely, the Defence index was the biggest loser, falling by 1.20 percent.
Market breadth on the BSE was negative, with 2,389 stocks declining and 1,822 advancing out of a total of 4,377 traded stocks. Notably, 146 stocks reached their 52-week highs, while 166 hit 52-week lows. Five stocks hit the lower circuit filters, with none reaching upper circuit limits.
IndusInd Bank topped the Nifty gainers, rising 3.07 percent to ₹734.60, followed by Titan Company, which increased by 2.70 percent to ₹3,417.00. Hindalco Industries climbed 1.65 percent to ₹756.10, and State Bank of India and Wipro both rose 1.55 percent, closing at ₹870.25 and ₹239.40, respectively.
On the flip side, Maruti Suzuki India was the leading decliner, dropping 1.76 percent to ₹16,000.00, followed by Axis Bank, which fell 1.73 percent to ₹1,134.00. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories lost 1.13 percent, closing at ₹1,238.90, HDFC Life Insurance declined 1.07 percent to ₹756.25, and Eicher Motors decreased by 1.04 percent to ₹6,973.50.
“The domestic market ended the session on a flat note due to increased caution ahead of a holiday-shortened week and ongoing foreign institutional investor (FII) selling. Ambiguity concerning the US-India trade deal and persistent pressures on IT and pharma indices remain short-term concerns,” stated Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited.
In derivatives, significant open interest accumulation was noted in stocks such as Samman Cap, Dixon, Hindustan Petroleum, Nestle India, and Power Grid, indicating active trading. Futures & Options (F&O) data showed sustained pressure from the call side, with total call open interest at 26.78 crore compared to put open interest at 16.57 crore. Put writing at the 24,600 and 24,500 levels highlighted immediate support zones.
“Markets remained range-bound and cautious ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy decision. Sector rotation has provided selective support, with metals benefiting from stronger copper demand, while trends in IT and pharma stocks remained mixed,” noted Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, remarked, “While the overhang of recent US policy actions has eased slightly, ongoing foreign fund outflows and caution surrounding the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting weigh on market sentiment. We anticipate consolidation for the Nifty, with strong support around the 24,400–24,500 levels and resistance at 24,800–25,000.”
The Indian rupee traded slightly weaker at 88.73, down 0.06 percent, as attention shifts to a crucial data-laden week. “The increase in gold prices has added further pressure due to India’s import dependence, while delays in the US-India trade deal and existing 50 percent tariffs continue to affect export sentiment. We expect the rupee to remain under pressure, with a trading range of 88.55–89.25,” stated Jateen Trivedi, Vice President of Research at LKP Securities.
Gold prices soared to historic highs, with MCX prices climbing ₹1,100 to ₹1,15,000, and Comex Gold rising 1.20 percent to $3,814. “This rally was supported by the US PCE Price Index meeting expectations last Friday, fueling speculations of another Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming meeting. The outlook remains bullish, with a trading range of ₹1,13,500–₹1,16,500,” Trivedi added.
Looking forward, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, observed, “Based on technical and derivative indicators, the index is expected to trade in a short-term range of 24,500–24,850 with volatility and a sideways-to-bearish trend. A sustained move above the 50-day exponential moving average is required to signal a bullish trend.” The anticipated RBI monetary policy decision on Wednesday is expected to serve as a key market catalyst, with expectations of unchanged rates to help mitigate rupee volatility.
