Oil prices declined at the beginning of the week due to rising expectations that OPEC+ will increase production in November, raising concerns about a potential surplus. Brent crude fell below $70 per barrel after a 5.2% increase the previous week, while West Texas Intermediate traded around $65. Sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions indicate that the alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, is considering a production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day, as scheduled for next month.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are now focusing on regaining market share rather than their traditional role of price management, which includes reintroducing previously idle production. Despite these moves, oil prices have remained relatively resilient, buoyed by strong demand from China.
The planned output increase for October, along with the potential adjustments for November, is significantly lower compared to previous months. Delegates have pointed out that the actual increase in supply will likely be less than anticipated, as some member countries may not have the capacity to raise production levels.
Moreover, the International Energy Agency has projected a record surplus in the oil market by 2026, attributing this to the ongoing revival of production by OPEC+ and increasing supply from competing producers. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. anticipates that Brent crude prices will fall to the mid-$50s per barrel next year, notwithstanding stockpiling efforts by China.
For further details, additional stories can be found on bloomberg.com.
Published on September 29, 2025.
