India’s coffee production for the 2025-26 crop year, beginning in October, is forecasted to reach a record high of 4.03 lakh tonnes (lt), according to the Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimates. This projection represents an increase of approximately 11 percent compared to the final crop estimates of 3.63 lt for the 2024-25 season.
The estimates indicate arabica production at 1.18 lt, which is about 12 percent higher than the 1.05 lt reported for 2024-25, while robusta output is expected to rise by 9.5 percent to over 2.84 lt, up from 2.57 lt in the previous season. Within traditional growing regions, including Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, total output is anticipated to be 3.85 lt, up from 3.46 lt. The arabica yield is projected at 1.01 lt, compared to 90,550 tonnes last season, and robusta output is poised to increase to 2.84 lt from 2.55 lt.
Despite these optimistic projections based on field surveys typically conducted in May and June, recent excessive rainfall has raised concerns regarding crop prospects. Prolonged rains have contributed to the early development of black rot disease in arabica plants and fruit rot in robusta, sparking fears of reduced yields among farmers, particularly in Karnataka and Kerala.
Sahadev Balakrishna, Chairman of the UPASI Coffee Committee, expressed skepticism about the Board’s estimates, stating, “The Board’s estimates look very optimistic, especially for arabicas. We don’t know if arabica will cross 1 lt. For robustas, there will certainly be a big difference between the post-blossom and post-monsoon, especially after a heavy and continuous monsoon this year.”
In Karnataka, the leading coffee-producing state, total output is projected to rise to 2.80 lt from 2.56 lt. The arabica output is expected to increase to 84,925 tonnes, while robusta production is estimated at 1.95 lt, up from 1.87 lt.
Region-specific estimates reveal that in Kodagu, India’s largest coffee-producing district, output is set to rise to 1.30 lt, an increase from 1.21 lt. In the Chikkamagalur district, production is expected to grow to 1.04 lt from 91,400 tonnes, while Hassan district’s output forecasts an increase to 45,175 tonnes from 43,000 tonnes.
In Kerala, arabica production is expected to rise to 2,150 tonnes from 2,000 tonnes, with robusta output anticipated at 83,000 tonnes, up from 70,950 tonnes. Overall, Kerala’s total output is estimated to reach 85,150 tonnes, compared to 72,950 tonnes last season.
Tamil Nadu’s arabica output is forecasted to increase slightly to 13,955 tonnes from 13,850 tonnes, with robusta projected at 6,360 tonnes, up from 5,425 tonnes. The total output for Tamil Nadu is expected to be higher at 20,315 tonnes, compared to 19,275 tonnes previously.
In non-traditional coffee-producing regions, including Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, arabica output is anticipated at 16,980 tonnes, increasing from 15,060 tonnes, while robusta is expected to rise to 70 tonnes from 40 tonnes. Additionally, in the North Eastern region, output is projected to be marginally higher at 115 tonnes, compared to 90 tonnes, with robusta rising to 95 tonnes from 85 tonnes.
Published on September 18, 2025
